Hey guys,

As always, there's more on the to-do list than the will-do list, but this seems like a good time to raise this topic: do players score more often during their first cap, or first few caps?

There's a bit of a bias problem here, because players who don't score early are easy to forget ... but here goes anyway, for a haphazard collection of forwards (data from soccerhall.org).

First Goals
Wynalda: scored vs. Colombia in second appearance (first start)
Wegerle: scored vs. Portugal in second appearance (first start)
McBride: scored vs. Guatemala in fifth sub appearance and vs. Costa Rica in seventh appearance (first start)
Kirovski: scored @ Jamaica in third appearance (second start)
Razov: scored vs. Ireland in eighth appearance (third start)
Wolff: scored vs. Mexico in third appearance (first start)
Mathis: scored @ Barbados in fifth appearance (third start)
Donovan: scored vs Mexico in first appearance (as sub) and vs Korea in tenth appearance (eighth start)
Twellman: has not scored in seven caps (two starts)
Casey: has not scored in six caps (six starts)
Ching: scored @ Jamaica in third sub appearance and vs. El Salvador(first start)
Johnson: scored @ El Salvador in first appearance (as sub)

By Appearance
1: 2
2: 2
3: 3
4:
5: 2
6:
7:
8: 1
Not yet scored: 2

By Start
1: 5
2: 1
3: 2
4:
5:
6:
7:
8: 1
Not yet scored: 2
N/A: 1

It isn't obvious how to evaluate these numbers, but that's 5 goals in 11 first starts, 1 goal in 6 second starts, and 2 goals in 4 third starts. In total, that's 8 goals in 21 "first-three" starts for previously goalless forwards, a strike rate of 0.38. At the very least, that's comparable to what we get from an established forward under similar circumstances. Once we get to goalless forwards beyond their third start, however, we have 1 goal in 8 tries (0.125) ... not so good.

Seems like there's a follow-on question: how long to be patient with a forward who hasn't been scoring. Any thoughts?


Walking/Running Puppy - Advise needed
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